It's not a NICS check. That is a fairly common misconception. NICS is but one database and an NFA check utilizes at least 5 via FBI. And about that $200... You are paying the same amount that was levied at the start of the NFA. It has never been adjusted over time. And there are orders of magnitude more folks applying for transfer. So in real terms, you are paying less for a service that ever more people want.

As for NFA Examiners, since the contractors and most of the folks at NFA branch did receive furlough instructions in previous shut down escapades, I can only assume that the same will hold true this time, if it happens. I expect even more slow downs everywhere if the budget crashes.